このデッキのフラッシュカード（44）

• Human judgment and decision-making are often affected by cognitive shortcuts known as heuristics.
  psychology cognitive_science
• Heuristics are simplified strategies or 'rules of thumb' used to make judgments, while algorithms are rigorous, rule-based methods that guarantee correct answers.
  psychology decision_making
• Tversky and Kahneman (1974) highlighted the difference between algorithms and heuristics.
  psychology cognitive_science
• Using heuristics can be considered procedurally rational, as they make sense given human cognitive constraints.
  psychology cognitive_science
• An example of a heuristic is choosing the more crowded route when lost, which may lead to busy markets instead of city exits.
  psychology heuristics
• The representativeness heuristic involves judging probabilities based on how much one event resembles another.
  psychology heuristics
• In the representativeness heuristic, people often select the birth order GBBGBG as more likely than GGGBBB.
  psychology heuristics
• The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge detailed scenarios as more probable than general ones due to increased representativeness.
  psychology fallacies
• Kahneman and Tversky (1973) demonstrated the phenomenon of base rate neglect where participants ignore base rates when making judgments.
  psychology cognitive_biases
• The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that outcomes in random events will 'even out'.
  psychology fallacies
• The belief in the 'hot hand' in sports reflects the assumption that players on a streak are more likely to succeed, despite outcomes being statistically independent.
  psychology fallacies
• Probability matching, where people match their guesses to observed frequencies, may have had adaptive value in evolutionary contexts.
  psychology evolutionary_psychology
• The availability heuristic involves judging frequency or likelihood based on how easily examples come to mind.
  psychology heuristics
• Tversky and Kahneman (1974) illustrated the availability heuristic with the question of whether words are more likely to begin with 'k' or have 'k' as the third letter.
  psychology heuristics
• Most participants chose the former due to ease of recall, though having 'k' as the third letter is more common.
  psychology heuristics
• The availability heuristic often distorts public risk perception.
  psychology cognitive_biases
• Murder is often perceived as more frequent due to its availability in media and personal experiences.
  psychology risk_perception
• The phenomenon where people overestimate the risks of dramatic but rare events while underestimating more common dangers is known as availability heuristic.
  psychology heuristics
• The Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic involves starting with an initial value (the "anchor") and making adjustments from it, often leading to insufficient adjustments.
  psychology heuristics
• In Tversky and Kahneman's 1974 study, participants' estimates were influenced by irrelevant numbers, demonstrating the effect of anchors on judgments.
  psychology tversky kahneman
• When jurors are presented with verdict options from harshest to mildest, they tend to give harsher penalties.
  psychology law judgment
• Loftus and Palmer (1974) found that the phrasing of a question could affect eyewitness memory, showing that memory is reconstructive.
  psychology memory loftus palmer
• In Loftus and Palmer's study, the estimated speeds increased with the intensity of the verb used, with the word “smashed” producing the highest average estimate.
  psychology memory loftus palmer
• Hindsight bias causes people to recall their prior predictions as more accurate than they were, as shown by Fischhoff & Beyth (1975).
  psychology bias fischhoff beyth
• Rothbart (1970) found that Canadians opposed to Quebec's separation judged it less likely to occur, demonstrating a wishful thinking bias.
  psychology bias rothbart
• Langer (1975) showed that people have illusions of control, such as when participants believed their lottery tickets had more value if they had chosen them personally.
  psychology bias langer
• Kahneman and Tversky (1973) noted that instructors mistakenly believed punishment worked better for poor performance, failing to appreciate regression to the mean.
  psychology bias kahneman tversky
• Nisbett & Ross (1980) pointed out that measures designed to stem a crisis will appear to have an effect, demonstrating the influence of perception on judgment.
  psychology bias nisbett ross
• Tversky and Kahneman's 1974 study demonstrated that participants' estimates were skewed in the direction of the anchor even when they knew it was arbitrary.
  psychology tversky kahneman
• The phenomenon where people believe desirable outcomes are more likely is known as optimism bias.
  psychology bias
• Participants in Loftus and Palmer's study who heard the word “smashed” were more likely to falsely recall seeing broken glass at the scene of the accident.
  psychology memory loftus palmer
• Fischhoff & Beyth (1975) demonstrated that people inflate the probabilities they originally assigned to events that actually occurred, a phenomenon known as hindsight bias.
  psychology bias fischhoff beyth
• McGuire (1960) found that people are more willing to draw conclusions from desirable premises than from undesirable ones, revealing an optimism bias in reasoning.
  psychology bias mcguire
• The term anchoring refers to the tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions.
  psychology heuristics
• In negotiations, the initial asking price can significantly influence a real estate agent's valuation of a property.
  psychology negotiation real_estate
• Nisbett & Ross (1980) point out that measures designed to stem a "crisis" (sudden increase in crime, bankruptcies or disease or a sudden decrease in sales) will appear to have a greater impact than they really do have.
  psychology cognition nisbett ross
• Gmelch (1978) recorded superstitious behavior in professional baseball players.
  psychology behavior gmelch
• The sunk cost fallacy is a bias where people continue investing in a failing course of action due to prior investments.
  psychology cognition bias
• Arkes and Blumer (1985) found that most participants chose to complete a costly project even when a superior competitor emerged, due to prior investments.
  psychology decision-making arkes blumer
• Heuristics such as representativeness, availability, and anchoring allow people to make decisions efficiently but can lead to predictable errors.
  psychology heuristics
• Understanding cognitive shortcuts and the conditions under which they fail is crucial for improving decision-making in personal, professional, and societal domains.
  psychology decision-making
• Some heuristics may have been adaptive in our evolutionary past, even if they produce suboptimal outcomes in modern contexts.
  psychology evolution
• Biases can also be caused by motivational factors, memory errors, and faulty reasoning strategies.
  psychology biases
• The concept of superstitious behavior is linked to the perception of crisis and its impact on decision-making.
  psychology behavior superstitions